Covid-19 Methodology
Riskline's methodology for determining COVID-19 Risk Levels
Sources: In addition to its regular open source intelligence (OSINT) monitoring, our team of global intelligence analysts also closely reviews the latest public health developments from government agencies and bodies like the World Health Organization (WHO), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as well as private institutions such as the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Oxford University and the International Society for Infectious Diseases in order to make accurate and timely assessments of travel and health risks.
Updates: COVID reports are updated or verified 1) when an established policy or restriction is scheduled to end 2) when a new or updated policy or restriction is announced or comes into force 3) at least every 30 days. The "as of" date for each section of the report reflects when Riskline last updated or verified the information in that section.
COVID-19 Risk Levels: We assess a Risk Level for each destination based on international and domestic restrictions.
The Overall Risk Level for a destination is determined by the higher of the COVID-19 Risk Level or the Security Risk Level, an aggregate of all other risks besides COVID. For example, if the United Kingdom has a Moderate Security Risk Level, but a High COVID-19 Risk Level, we would rate the United Kingdom as High overall.
COVID-19 Risk Levels are a subjective assessment by our analysts based on the following guidelines:
| International Travel | Domestic Situation | |
|---|---|---|
| Extreme | Only essential international travel allowed; onerous entry requirements | Significant restrictions on activities; lockdown or curfew in place |
| High | Severely restricted, but travel possible; entry requirements difficult for unvaccinated; vaccinated travellers from most locations can enter | Restrictions on some activities; partial lockdown or curfew in place; few restrictions for vaccinated |
| Medium | Some restrictions; travel possible from most locations; unvaccinated travellers face some difficult entry requirements; all vaccinated travellers can enter easily | Few restrictions on activities; no restrictions for vaccinated, remaining restrictions might not be strictly enforced |
| Moderate | Few restrictions; travel possible from nearly all locations; all vaccinated travellers can enter easily | Limited or no restrictions on activities |
| Low | Limited or no restrictions; travel possible from all locations and all travellers can enter easily | Limited or no restrictions on activities |
In addition, we describe COVID-19 Risk Levels as:
- Unvaccinated travellers should defer non-essential travel to Extreme Risk locations, and vaccinated travellers should reconsider their travel. These locations may have severely restricted international travel and domestic activities.
- Unvaccinated travellers should reconsider their need to travel to High Risk locations, and vaccinated travellers should exercise caution.
- Unvaccinated travellers should exercise caution when travelling to Medium Risk locations, and vaccinated travellers should take normal precautions. These locations may have some restrictions on international travel, but few restrictions on domestic activities.
- Travellers should take normal precautions when travelling to Moderate Risk locations, which have few restrictions on international travel and limited or no restrictions on domestic activities.
- Travellers should take normal precautions when travelling to Low Risk locations, which have limited or no restrictions on international travel and domestic activities.
Note 1: as of 22 June 2021, Riskline no longer report Active and Recovered cases. Many countries stopped reporting these numbers, due to the difficulty in agreeing on a standard definition of how to measure this metric. After more than a year into the pandemic, these are no longer a useful metric for assessing the current state of an outbreak or the risk of infection.
Note 2: as of 13 November 2023, Riskline no longer reports Infection data and vaccination rates.
Definitions:
Flight ban: regulations or orders are in place that generally restrict the arrival or departure of international commercial flights. Closing all airports within a destination, for instance, represents a de facto ban on international flights.
Entry ban: regulations or orders are in place that restrict the entry of foreign travellers - based on nationality, travel history or other criteria - stop the issuance of visas or otherwise prohibit entry at border crossings.
Quarantine: regulations or orders are in place requiring arriving travellers to self-quarantine or be quarantined in a designated facility for a set period of time. These orders may or may not be enforced and monitored by authorities.
- 'Self': Travellers should self-quarantine at home or at another suitable location of their choosing, such as a hotel or short-stay rental.
- 'Gov': ravellers are required to quarantine at a facility operated by a government; this could include a purpose-built facility or a private accommodation, such as a hotel, run by the government.
- 'Hybrid': Travellers will quarantine at both a government-run facility and self-quarantine, according to local regulations.
Updated 5 months ago