Riskline analysts will use Alerts or Notices to cover incidents that could have an actual or expected impact on travel plans, operations, personnel safety or client assets. Analysts will cover an incident if they answer ‘yes’ to one or both of these questions:

Does/Will this incident have an actual/potential impact on travel?
Does/Will this incident have an actual/potential impact to the safety of a potential traveller?

Note, the lists below are not exhaustive.

Political Developments

Elections

Covered:

Upcoming national elections
Upcoming national or local elections that have a potential for violence or unrest
Results of national-level elections or other major elections and referendums

Not Covered:

Upcoming local elections that present no threat of violence or unrest.
Results of local-level elections or minor referendums

Political Events

Covered:

Major political events such as peace accords, high-profile assassinations, attempted coup d'etat, impeachments, important court rulings, passing of controversial reforms or laws
Unexpected changes to ruling government or opposition political parties

Not Covered:

Routine political events that have no impact on travel or public safety

Conflict and Terrorism

Conflict

Covered:

Communal/tribal conflicts that result in civilian casualties;
Major attacks on government/military infrastructure related to civil war or other internal conflict;
Major military/security operations in urban areas that result in safety/travel disruptions
Heightened political tensions that carry the potential to trigger violence/war
Declaration of war or de-facto equivalent

Not Covered:

Minor incidents in conflict and war zones that occur in remote/sparsely populated areas and do not result in major casualties
Where multiple rocket sirens are issued throughout the day, for example in Israel, just an overall roundup of effect sirens once a day is sufficient.
Marginal increase in casualties from an attack which was already covered
All other clashes between militants and security forces and military operations outside of those mentioned above

Terrorism

Covered:

Terrorist attacks
Anti-terrorism operations that impact travel
Disruption of active terrorist cells and plots
Official warnings of potential terrorist plots or planned attacks
Trials or convictions of terrorists that may result in unrest

Not Covered:

Arrests of suspected terrorists not linked to an active cells or plot. Arrest does not impact travel
Trials or convictions of terrorists.

Demonstrations and Unrest

Demonstrations

Covered:

Upcoming demonstrations that may impact travel or security
Demonstrations underway that impact travel or security
Previous demonstrations that have turned violent
Previous demonstrations that are likely to continue in the near-term

Not Covered:

Demonstrations that have widespread media coverage but little to no impact on travel or security (e.g. Greenpeace actions)
Previous demonstrations that were non-violent, did not impact travel and are unlikely to reoccur

Unrest

Covered:

Mass unrest such as riots, looting and brawls
Planned events that may escalate to unrest

Not Covered:

Unrest that has no wider impact on travel or public safety

Crime and Corruption

Covered:

Violent crimes/mass casualty incidents in a major city, commercial centres and other urban areas that have a potential or actual impact on travel or public safety. This includes incidents such as mass shootings, ambushes of security forces and prolonged shootouts between criminals and security forces.
Violent crimes that specifically target travellers or foreign nationals
Kidnappings of foreigners, especially by militant and insurgent groups
Pirate attacks
Security operations or raids that impact travel or public safety in major urban areas
Raid on or arrest of a criminal leader that may spark unrest or reprisal violence
Discovery of mass graves, dumped bodies or other significant criminal evidence that involves foreign nationals or may trigger unrest

Not Covered:

Violent crime affecting local residents that has no wider impact on travel or public safety. This includes crimes targeting locals which occur in residential areas of a city, especially in suburbs, and rural areas that have little to no impact on travel, and crimes targeting locals which occur in an urban area at night when travellers are unlikely to be in the area.
Security operations or raids that take place in rural or small urban areas and/or do not impact travel or public safety
Raids or arrests of crime lords, drug kingpins or gang leaders
Discovery of mass graves, dumped bodies or other significant criminal evidence

Natural and Environmental

Earthquakes

Covered:

Earthquakes above 6.0 magnitude
Earthquakes below 6.0 that exhibit any of the following characteristics:
Epicentre near a major city
Greater than moderate shaking (Level V or higher observed by USGS)
Structural damage
Injuries or death
Pager alert of Yellow or above (according to USGS)

Not Covered:

Earthquakes below 6.0 magnitude

Tsunamis

Covered:

Tsunami alert issued by Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) or similar authority
Tsunami alert issued by that respective country's geological services or regional monitor
Tsunami advisories by PTWC, or similar authority or local/regional monitor
Tsunami waves seen nearing or hitting a coast

Not Covered:

Tsunami watches
If there are dozens of countries in a tsunami warning note, we do not cover those for which waves of less than one metre are forecast

Weather and Storms

Covered:

Weather “warnings” (often colour-coded as Black, Red, Purple, etc) or other highest-level weather alerts issued by meteorological authorities
Developing weather events (e.g. hurricanes, cyclones, severe winter storms) that have the potential to cause major/significant disruptions
Major weather events that are underway and causing disruptions

Not Covered:

All other weather alerts (including advisories, watches, etc.) issued by meteorological authorities, unless there is the potential for major/significant disruptions

Other Natural & Environmental

Covered

Wild or brush fires that impact travel or have a potential to impact public safety
Smog or pollution that could impact travel or public safety
Major changes to alert levels of volcanoes/exclusion zones/evacuations following an eruption
Increase in volcanic seismic activity after a long time
Disruptions of flights due to volcanic eruptions
Tornado warnings which span across multiple major cities for several hours
Tornado hitting an area or damage from tornado

Not Covered

Other environmental conditions or natural phenomena that do not impact travel or public safety.
Tornado warnings in remote areas where the warning is in effect for only about an hour or two.

Health and Medical

Covered:

Outbreaks of diseases and illnesses that have the potential to impact public safety (cholera, Zika virus, Ebola, MERS-CoV, Dengue fever) and travel itineraries (quarantines, restrictions);
Strikes by health professionals that have the potential to impact the delivery of emergency, clinic or hospital services
Cyber attacks that impact negatively healthcare services

Not Covered:

Routine illnesses that are not unprecedented, such as common cold or influenza
Strikes by health professionals that are unlikely to impact the delivery of basic medical services, such as those by pharmacists, dentists, x-ray technicians, hospice workers

Travel Safety and Disruptions

Security Alerts

Covered:

Active shooter situations underway in a major populated/high-traffic area that impacts travel or public safety
Security alert in a major populated/high-traffic area that impacts travel or public safety
Shootings that result in mass casualties

Not Covered:

Active shooter situations that do not directly affect public safety or travel
Security alerts that have no wider impact on travel or public safety
Shooting/stabbing incidents affecting just one or two people in remote or crime-ridden areas, especially in the USA, Canada, UK and Australia, at nighttime, (example: outside a gas station, smaller convenience stores, standoff at a residence clearly arising due to a domestic dispute, drive-by shooting outside an ATM or on highway, etc) that do not result in lockdowns or shelter-in place orders or major travel disruptions representing a wider threat to the community

Air Travel

Covered:

Single aeroplane security/safety alert that results in the flight delayed, cancelled, evacuated or rerouted to a new destination because of the security/safety alert.
Single aeroplane security/safety alert that impacts other flights or airport operations
Technical or utility problems resulting in disruptions to airport services or flight schedules (power or computer network outages)
Disruption of flight schedules resulting in major cancellations or delays (~ 2 hours)

Not Covered:

Single aeroplane security alert if the flight arrives at final destination with no impact on other flight operations and passengers disembark safely
Single aeroplane incident that does not have security implications (e.g. unruly passenger, sickness, mechanical problem, etc.)

Events

Covered:

International summits or major sporting events that trigger heightened security measures, travel disruptions or protests
Local major sporting events between rival teams that may trigger violence/unrest
Commemorative events or anniversaries that may trigger heightened security measures or travel disruption
Official state visits that disrupt travel or include associated heightened security measures

Not Covered:

All other routine events that are unlikely to affect travel itineraries or public safety

Strikes

Covered:

Transport strikes that have an actual or potential impact on travel
Confirmation that planned transport strike will not impact travel
Service or utility strike that has an actual or potential impact on travel, services or public safety

Not Covered:

Strike by group that will have no impact on travel or public safety (e.g. postal workers, teachers, factory workers)

Transport Accidents

Covered:

Accidents that result in further disruptions to travel. This would include public transport suspensions and high-traffic road closures (main highways, central areas within a city), that would create major traffic jams
Accident that underscores persistent risks associated with certain modes of transport

Not Covered:

Routine transport accident that has no further impact on travel or safety

Other Accidents

Covered:

Commercial, industrial or residential accident that results in travel disruptions or public safety warnings

Not Covered:

Accident that does not impact travel or public safety

Other Accidents

Covered:

Cyber attacks on transport infrastructure (airports, trains, highways, subways)
Cyber attacks on critical services, including transport (electricity, water, fuel, public transport, airlines, air traffic control, healthcare)
Cyber attacks on government systems which may cause disruptions to critical public services
Internet outages (widespread)
National or local blocks on communications networks and social media

Not Covered:

Cyber attacks that do not affect services or infrastructure mentioned above
Cyber attack on banks, payment processors and other financial institutions
Cyber attacks with very local impact on services, infrastructure, etc.
Global outages of important websites, messaging services and social media
Digital scams